This year has started strongly in terms of global air passenger demand – with January seeing a 3.8% year-on-year increase in passenger volumes, latest monthly figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) show.
January demand was skewed by a shift in the Lunar New Year from January in 2025 to February in 2026. Lunar New Year typically drives a spike in demand, as families reconnect to celebrate the holiday. The year-on-year comparison has the effect of making January 2026 demand appear slightly weaker.
“The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8% expansion in January, but the fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026. Schedule data, for example, indicate a 5.2% increase in global seat capacity by March, which would be the fastest expansion since April 2024. Events over the weekend have, however, introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs. We all hope for an early peaceful resolution to the current hostilities. In the meantime, it is critical that states respect their obligation to keep civilians, and civil aviation free from harm,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
“Average fares are expected to fall in real terms over the course of 2026, continuing a long-established trend of ever more affordable air travel. This is despite persistent cost pressures from rising infrastructure charges, onerous regulatory burdens, and the mounting cost of the energy transition. In the face of these cost and regulatory pressures, it is notable that 2025 saw the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999. Governments who value competition should consider this a canary in the coal mine. To protect and enhance the consumer benefits of connectivity, these cost and regulatory issues must be addressed,” he added.
