Quora – the international social question and answer website – tossed out a pretty succinct and relevant little question in the aftermath of Tuesday night/Wednesday morning…namely: Are non-Americans less likely to visit the US while Trump is president?
The initial answers weren’t altogether positive, nor surprising…
“Sadly, yes.”
“Darn right, we’re less likely!”
“Yes, and the fact I feel the need to answer this anonymously speaks volumes.”
“There is, certainly, evidence that this is the case – data which reflects Europeans avoiding Trump’s America as a holiday destination [during Mr Trump’s first stint as commander in chief]. Some business travellers will not be coming, too.”
“The short answer is: ‘yes’!”
“My manager recently asked me if I wanted to attend an upcoming trade show in the US and my answer was ‘f**k no, not for at least 4 years!’”
“Now that the US has taken to harassing its own citizens at the border, I have no interest, whatsoever, in subjecting myself to the whim of some bored customs agent.”
“The guy in charge now is a full time a**hole and, at this time in my life, I don’t feel like wasting precious hours of my life applying and paying for a visa.”
“Yes. Me for one, I won’t come back to the States until either the next election is over – with Trump not being elected – or he pops his clogs.”
“It’s already happening…!”
Now, official travel and tourism agencies, in the US, are keeping their collective powder dry, following this week’s presidential election result, and are generally pledging to continue close relationships with the incoming administration, as they would seek to do with any new broom.
Some have even claimed things won’t change – with global consumers still wanting to travel and the US still being one of the biggest destination draws on the planet.
However, as the above quotes indicate, there are real chances of a second so-called Trump Slump – which saw international visitor numbers to the US dip after Mr Trump’s first stint in office began in 2017; only to boom after he left in 2021.
It is, of course, impossible to accurately gauge what will happen until it does or doesn’t.
And – believe it or not, most of us (still) don’t actually have to hold any particular political leanings, either way, in order to visit any traditional western democracy in the 21st Century.
Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that the likes of Aer Lingus, JetBlue, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and others will be criss-crossing the Atlantic with empty planes for the next four years.
However, those intro quotes are only the tip of the initial iceberg to that Quora question. The negative response reel went on for many more pages.
And, the 10th answer – “it’s already happening” – rings true, to a degree, with The Economist magazine noting an immediate drop of 17% in online searches for US flights, this week, and an initial 3% dip in business bookings.
There are, indeed, some real widespread issues concerning both consumers and industry – from potential changes to visa regulations; how new immigration controls might hit job numbers and staffing issues; and how any changes to infrastructure investment might hurt hoteliers and airlines looking for more State-backing for a faster green transition, something for which the 45th – and soon to be 47th – US President hasn’t, historically, shown much enthusiasm.
Whether Mr Trump realises it or not, the world has changed and progressed, a lot, since he was last in power.
US airports – in terms of modernisation and expansion – have blossomed under Joe Biden’s presidency, with government spending on infrastructure surging. Similarly, hotel building boomed as visitor numbers surged and road building picked up.
But, even though Donald Trump was in favour of building projects in his first term, there is already some concern he may be planning to row back on such enthusiasm, which could hurt many tourism businesses on the ground.
The flip side of that, though, is the opinion that a lower corporate tax rate under President-Elect Trump could actually financially help travel companies.
Any – highly predictable, given previous Trump form – reversal of pro-climate action transition moves could also seriously hinder US airline growth in the coming years, especially if sustainable aviation fuel funding is curtailed.
Consumer concerns are already being fuelled by rumours that Trump will be less pro-passenger protection, than Biden, when it comes to air fare refund laws.
Passengers will also be worried that reduced visa wait times and easier travel processes, ushered in under Joe Biden, may give way to longer waits, travel bans and all sorts of travel restrictions under Donald Trump – an initial high profile feature of his first crack at the job.
Inflation, and lower interest rates, are also making the US a very expensive place to visit – with car rental prices and hotel rates skyrocketing this year.
The return of Donald Trump, as US president, could have extreme complex effects on the US tourism industry – far beyond whether or not people still visit the country or not.
The most divisive US president in post-war politics could well end up making America great again…again. The only – impossible to answer – question is: for who?
